Brandon Belt Makes the Giants

The first great prospect of 2011 has made a roster. San Francisco Giants 1B Brandon Belt has made the roster coming out of spring training according to Alex Pavlovic of the San Jose Mercury News. Belt was believed to need a little more time in the minors according to some in order to get more seasoning and to extend his arbitration/free agent clock by one year. He was drafted by the Giants in the 5th round of the 2009 Amateur Draft and has lit up the Minor Leagues since. Belt hit .352 with 23 home runs, 112 RBIs and 22 stolen bases at three minor-league stops last season. He is tied for second on the Giants with three homers and 13 RBIs this spring. "He's earned this and it makes us a better club," manager Bruce Bochy said. "We wanted to break with the best club and right now we feel that having Brandon on the club makes us that." If you haven't been able to tell I love this kid by now, lay off the bottle. I've monitored him this spring watching a few Giants games and he is an absolute stud who will put up good numbers if he gets the at-bats. The thing that worries me is what the Giants will do when, last year's NLCS MVP, Cody Ross comes back from his calf injury. Giants GM Brian Sabean will have a lot of decision making to do in the future. As a fantasy owner you shouldn't even hesitate. If you need a first baseman, take a flyer on him. He will be better suited than a Mitch Moreland or Adam LaRoche type. TRUST ME!

As the Braves Improve, So Will Heyward

   Last season, high expectations swirled around Braves rookie Jason Heyward before he ever stepped into the batter's box. Those expectations exploded when Heyward hit a home run in his first ever major league at-bat. By seasons end, many were somewhat disappointed with Heyward who hit below .300 with less than 20 HR's and finished second to Buster Posey in Rookie of the Year voting. Heyward isn't completely to blame for his somewhat mediocre season. The Braves' lineup suffered when Chipper Jones went down with a horrific knee injury that ended his season. Troy Glaus struggled and Heyward was relied upon heavily to help carry the Braves' offense. This season, the Braves will have a formidable lineup that will give Heyward an opportunity to put up much better stats as he moves from 2nd to 6th in the lineup. With players like Chipper Jones, Brian McCann and Dan Uggla batting in the 3, 4 and 5 spots respectively, Heyward will be primed to drive in runners. In 2010, Heyward hit .308 with 60 RBI's and 6 HR's with runners on base. Also, Heyward only had 39 at-bats in the 6th spot, but he hit .359 with 6 HR's and 11 RBI's! The move from the 2 to the 6 spot, plus the addition of Uggla and the return of Chipper, will equal a break-out year for the Jay Hey Kid. 

Hollywood's Top 10 Shortstops

1. Hanley Ramirez- Florida Marlins

2. Troy Tulowitzki- Colorado Rockie

3. Jimmy Rollins- Philadelphia Phillies

4. Jose Reyes- New York Mets
5. Derek Jeter- New York Yankees
6. Alexei Ramirez- Chicago White Sox
7. Stephen Drew- Arizona Diamondbacks
8. Rafael Furcal- Los Angeles Dodgers
9. Asdrubal Cabrera- Cleveland Indians
10. Elvis Andrus- Texas Rangers

Sleeper- Yunel Escobar- Toronto Blue Jays
Bust- Elvis Andrus- Texas Rangers

Hollywood's Take

       
     Hanley Ramirez had some what of a down year by his standards. His and Troy Tulowitzki's numbers will be similar. They both hit for power, drive in runs, and will hit around .300. Hanley is the top Shortstop because he steals bases at a much higher rate than Tulo. Although Hanley's steals have gone done since moving to third in the lineup, he still has averaged just over 30 steals a season. If Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes stay healthy they both can put up huge fantasy numbers. That's a big IF though. Expect Derek Jeter to have a bounce-back season. I don't think his skills have diminished as drastically as people have thought.
    Asdrubal Cabrera was on his way to a solid season before a broken forearm derailed him. He's a solid hitter who will put together decent fantasy numbers. Alexei Ramirez is a solid 20 home run and 15 steal guy. If  you consistently read this blog, which who wouldn't, you know that I'm not a fan of Elvis Andrus. He's going WAY too high in drafts for a guy who's only a single category player. STAY AWAY! I think Yunel Escobar is a guy who just needed to get out of Atlanta. He put up back-to-back solid seasons in 2008 and 2009,but couldn't get along with Bobby Cox and his staff. He's a Blue Jay now and with the Rogers Centre as much of a launch pad as it has been, he could get an opportunity to hit some bombs.

Mat Latos is Scheduled to Throw on Tuesday

     San Diego Padres ace Mat Latos will throw Tuesday despite his sore shoulder, according to Yahoo! Sports. Latos felt pain in his shoulder while doing rehab work on Friday, but is feeling better and looks to get back on the bump. The Padres are saying that their number one pitcher is day-to-day, but Tim Stauffer will be starting on Opening Day in place of Latos. Most fantasy projections have Latos as a top 15 pitcher, however the mystery of just how serious this shoulder injury is may have some fantasy owners passing on him in their drafts. Don't lose too much sleep if you already have Latos as one of your starting pitchers. He may miss a few weeks at the beginning of the season, but that's only because the Padres are going to be very cautious with their young star and his shoulder. San Diego doesn't want to rush him back onto the mound, which will mean more time to heal. This should mean Latos will come on strong in mid to late April and will be back to his old form. Look for him to continue his dominance with a near 3 ERA and almost 200 strikeouts. Don't be surprised if he doesn't get too many wins, however. He had 14 last season and his run support won't be any better now that Adrian Gonzalez is playing on the other coast for the Red Sox.

Axe's Top 10 Shortstops

Troy Tulowitzki will be the best SS in baseball in 2011.

1. Troy Tulowitzki - Colorado Rockies
2. Hanley Ramirez - Florida Marlins
3. Jose Reyes - New York Mets
4. Alexei Ramirez - Chicago White Sox
5. Stephen Drew - Arizona Diamondbacks
6. Jimmy Rollins - Philadelphia Phillies
7. Derek Jeter - New York Yankees
8. Elvis Andrus - Texas Rangers
9. Starlin Castro - Chicago Cubs
10. Rafael Furcal - Los Angeles Dodgers

Sleeper - Jhonny Peralta - Detroit Tigers
Bust - Ian Desmond - Washington Nationals

Axe's Take

     Most people have Hanley Ramirez as their top shortstop, but when Troy Tulowitzki is healthy, no one can match his production. In the month of September alone, Tulo rocked his mullet and also rocked National League pitchers, hitting .322, with 15 HR and 40 RBI's! If he gets his at-bats, he'll put up top fantasy numbers. Jimmy Rollins was once considered the best player on the Phillies' roster, but injuries have plagued Rollins and caused his numbers to fall. He still has great potential, but you may end up with a shortstop who only plays half the season. Derek Jeter made headlines this off-season with his very public contract negotiations. Now that the Yankee captain looks like he'll finish his career in pinstripes, he can focus on playing baseball. However, even with fewer distractions, Jeter's numbers won't improve much.  Jhonny Peralta could be a major sleeper in 2011. His average wasn't eye-catching to say the least, but his numbers improved when he was traded from the Indians to the Tigers. Being on a competitive team should help Peralta improve his fantasy numbers. I'm still not sold on Ian Desmond. A .269 average with only 10 HR's and 109 strikeouts? No thanks.

Elvis Andrus Going Way too High

I've been looking at a ton of mock drafts lately that have Elvis Andrus being the 6th Shortstop taken. What a huge mistake. Don't be decieved by Elvis Andrus. He does get stolen bases, yes, having back-to-back 30 stolen base campaigns, but failed to hit a single homerun. That's right, not one ball went over the fence. To put that in perspective, Yovani Gallardo had 4 homeruns and he's a pitcher! Andrus had 18 exta-base hits all season. Troy Tulowitski had 23 in September. I do see potential for Andrus, but he just hasn't put it together to be drafted as the sixth shortstop. I'd much rather take a guy like Alexei Ramirez or Rafael Furcal. Both have some pop in their bats, and have potential to steal 20-30 bases in a season. WARNING: STAY AWAY FROM SLAP HITTERS IN THE DRAFT, THEY CAN BE TAKEN OFF WAIVER WIRES!

Brian WIlson Shutdown

According to Matt Snyder of CBS Sports, San Francisco Giant's Closer Brian Wilson was shut down during his latest throwing session due to "recurring soreness" in his injured left oblique muscle. The Giants are telling Brian Wilson they don't want him pitching in the opener versus the Dodgers. The Giants will apparently use Jeremy Affeldt or Santiago Casilla to close out games until Wilson returns. Oblique muscles can be tricky. Wilson could twist wrong once and be out for a month. The Giants are doing the right thing by shutting him down. I wouldn't be suprised if they keep him out the first couple of weeks just to be safe. Don't let the injury change your mind during the draft. He's still a top 3 closer even with the injury.

Alex Rodriguez's "Fountain of Youth"

A lot has been said about Alex Rodriguez's age and decline skills. Yahoo's Rob Iracrane wrote an article today about A-Rod finding the "fountain of youth."  I don't believe he's going to revert back to four years ago when he hit 54 home runs and 156 RBIs which both lead the league, I do believe he is being heavily underrated. He is almost fully recovered from his hip injury which should help him turn on the inside pitches. His average dropped to .270 but I don't see it being that low this season. Even if it does and at 35, his swing has slowed, he still managed 125 RBIs in 2010. Don't expect him to go back to stealing a ton of bases, but double-digit steals isn't out of the realm of possibility. A-Rod is still one of the best third baseman in the league, let everyone else think he's declining and take the 125 RBIs to the bank.

Johnny Cueto to Start Season on DL

Cueto will have a tough time getting ready for the season

According to the Associated Press, Johnny Cueto will miss the start of the season with  an inflamed pitching shoulder. He had to leave his second straight spring training start early with this injury. This scares me a lot. He's essentially had no spring training which means even when he does come back he's not going to be in season's form. According to MLB.com, team medical director Dr. Timothy Kremchek said the shoulder is structurally sound. Cueto posted a 3.64 earned run average and 12-7 record, striking out 138 and walking 56 in 185 2/3 innings in 31 starts. I'd stay away from Johnny Fastball unless he plummets in your draft. He has been a notoriously fast starter but it doesn't seem like he will this season. Most of his value that I've seen is with his potential. Remember, never draft entirely based on potential.

Hollywood's Second Baseman

    

1. Robinson Cano- New York Yankees

2. Dan Uggla- Atlanta Braves

3. Dustin Pedrioa- Boston Red Sox

4. Brandon Phillips- Cincinnati Reds

5. Chase Utley- Philadelphia Phillies

6. Ian Kinsler- Texas Rangers

7. Rickie Weeks- Milwaukee Brewers

8. Martin Prado- Atlanta Braves

9. Aaron Hill- Toronto Blue Jays

10.Ben Zobrist- Tampa Bay Rays

Sleeper: Brian Roberts- Baltimore Orioles
Bust:  Chase Utley- Philadelphia Phillies

 Hollywood's Take

  
     With Chase Utley's knee problems limiting him, making him a huge injury risk, Robinson Cano is the clear favorite in this year's second baseman class. The Luis Castillo signing by the Phillies should be a sign that they don't trust him this year. I love the power potential from both Dustin Pedrioa and Dan Uggla. Pedrioa was having a career year in home runs before a foul ball broke his left foot and took him out for the rest of the season. Brandon Phillips has been one of the most consistent power and speed sources. His steals went down last year but with the move to fifth in the batting order, I see him improving his RBI numbers from last year.

     Marin Prado is the most underrated of this bunch. He's a consistent player who gives you eligibility at 2nd, 3rd, and Outfield. Look for Aaron Hill to bounce back this season. I don't see him putting up the same home run totals as 2009, but a .270 career hitter, I also don't see him hitting as poorly as he did in 2010. If Ben Zobrist leads-off for the Rays he should be a runs and walks machine. If Brian Roberts stays healthy all year you could have yourself a gem in this draft ( and his wife is really hot). Hes a guy who could easily score 100 runs in the new look Orioles line-up and could easily put up 10 home runs and 30 stolen bases. Remember that second base is no longer a weak position. It's deeper than it has been in past years. If you don't get one of the top guys, don't panic.

Ranger's Closer Neftali Feliz May Become a Starter

Feliz was a major reason why the Rangers won the AL West last season.

     Rumor has it that the Texas Rangers can't decide whether closer Neftali Feliz will start the season in their rotation or their bullpen. Last week, Feliz said that he would prefer to remain the team's closer. However, the 2010 AL Rookie of the Year now says he wants to make a run at a spot in the starting rotation. According to Fox Sports Southwest, Feliz changed his mind after he learned to throw a cut fastball from pitching coach Mike Maddux. The cutter will help Feliz stretch his pitch count and will ease his transition from a one inning wonder to a potential complete game horse. The change could have a major impact on fantasy rosters. Last season, Feliz set a rookie record with 40 saves and is one of the best relief pitchers in this year's fantasy draft. If Feliz loses his RP status, he can still be valuable as a starting pitcher. In addition to his new cutter, Feliz has a great fastball, a good changeup and a useful curveball. Feliz also pitched 4 innings on Monday and only gave up 3 hits. As long as the innings don't get to him, Feliz should still put up solid numbers for your fantasy team.

Axe's Top 10 Second Basemen

Martin Prado's stats earned him a 2010 All-Star selection.

1. Robinson Cano - New York Yankees
2. Dan Uggla - Atlanta Braves
3. Dustin Pedroia - Boston Red Sox
4. Martin Prado - Atlanta Braves
5. Ian Kinsler - Texas Rangers
6. Chase Utley - Philadelphia Phillies
7. Brandon Phillips - Cincinnati Reds
8. Rickie Weeks - Milwaukee Brewers
9. Ben Zobrist - Tampa Bay Rays
10. Gordon Beckham - Chicago White Sox

Sleeper - Howie Kendrick - Los Angeles Angels
Bust - Kelly Johnson - Arizona Diamondbacks

Axe's Take

      

Zobrist should improve on his .238 average.

     Robinson Cano's numbers put him in the AL MVP race last season. Things shouldn't change much in 2011 for the guy named after the greatest second baseman of all time, Jackie Robinson. Former AL MVP and Rookie of the Year Dustin Pedroia should rebound after a broken left foot kept him off of the diamond for much of the 2010 season. I still don't see why so many people aren't as high on Martin Prado. He hit .307 with 15 home runs and 66 RBI's and tallied 100 runs last season. Don't get me wrong, his numbers aren't the best among available second basemen, but he deserves to be in the top 5. Both Ian Kinsler and Chase Utley have the potential to put up monster numbers, but the fact that they've both struggled with lingering injuries hurts their overall value in this years draft. Last season, Rays' utility man Ben Zobrist was far from the "Zorilla" fans grew to love in 2009. But rumor has it that manager Joe Maddon is now considering Zobrist at the leadoff spot over catcher John Jaso. This should give Zobrist more at-bats and a chance at redemption. Finally, don't take Kelly Johnson! Trust me, I witnessed first-hand what Johnson did in Atlanta and his hot start to last season with the Diamondbacks was a fluke. He's fun to boo, but not fun to have on your fantasy team.

Grady Sizemore Runs Bases at Full-Speed

According to the Associated Press Indians Outfielder Grady Sizemore has begun to run bases at  full speed."I did everything, simulated game conditions," Sizemore said. "Home to first, first to third, second to home, leading off, tagging up. It all went well. I didn't feel slow. I haven't lost a step." It was the first time Sizemore had ran full speed since micro fracture surgery on his left knee. Sizemore was once a top pick for outfielders as early as two years ago but has battled injuries the last two playing in only 169 in that span  including 33 games last year, hitting zero home runs. It was obvious there was something wrong with Sizemore's swing last year. He has never been a guy who gets you a great batting average and tends to strikeout-out too much but when healthy, he's a potential 30-30 guy. Steer clear from him in the early rounds until you see him put together another full season. I've seen people call him a sleeper, let them screw up their draft early and wait on Sizemore as one of your last two outfielders. If he drops it could be a  great pickup and you can act like a genius who knew what he was talking about.

Hollywood's Top 10 Third Baseman

David Wright was able to rebound from a poor 2009 season.

1. Evan Longoria- Tampa Bay Rays

2. Ryan Zimmerman- Washington Nationals

3. Alex Rodriguez- New York Yankees

4. David Wright- New York Mets

5. Aramis Ramirez-Chicago Cubs

6. Adrian Beltre- Texas Rangers

7. Casey McGehee- Milwaukee Brewers

8. Jose Batista- Toronto Blue Jays

9. Michael Young- Texas Rangers

10. Pedro Alvarez- Pittsburgh Pirates

Sleeper: Pedro Alvarez - Pittsburgh Pirates

Bust: Adrian Beltre - Texas Rangers

Hollywood's Take

Evan Longoria is the gem of the class of third baseman but it’s closer than you think. The top four are fairly dependable players who you should get home runs and RBIs from.  David Wright is only forth on my list because Citi Field still scares the hell out of me. Even though he bounced back last season from a horrendous 2009, he still only managed 12 home runs at home and has seen his strikeouts rise while his walks and batting average have fallen. Aramis Ramirez has had back-to-back injury plagued seasons but bounced back nicely in the second half of last season. Don’t be fooled by his batting average (.241), he was well under the Mendoza-line for much of the season. As long Casey McGehee hits behind Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder he will get plenty of RBI opportunities.

Pedro Alvarez had a solid season after being called up (.256 16 hr 64 RBI), but the amount of strikeouts have to scare you a little. Getting a guy late in the draft that has potential to put up 40 home runs is well worth it. I don’t think there’s anything to worry about with Michael Young being upset in Texas, he has been a solid hitter his entire career. Adrian Beltre scares me because he seems to only put up great fantasy numbers when he's in his "walk" year. I don't foresee as much of a drop off as he did going from Los Angeles to Seattle, but expect his .321 average to drop drastically.

Aramis Ramirez has had back-to-back injury plagued seasons.

Axe's Top 10 Third Basemen

Evan Longoria is a great, all-around fantasy third baseman.

1. Evan Longoria - Tampa Bay Rays
2. Adrian Beltre - Texas Rangers
3. Alex Rodriguez - New York Yankees
4. Ryan Zimmerman - Washington Nationals
5. David Wright - New York Mets
6. Casey McGehee - Milwaukee Brewers
7. Martin Prado - Atlanta Braves
8. Jose Bautista - Toronto Blue Jays
9. Michael Young - Texas Rangers
10. Pablo Sandoval - San Francisco Giants

Sleeper - Pedro Alvarez - Pittsburgh Pirates
Bust - Mark Reynolds - Baltimore Orioles

Axe's Take

Sandoval hit a measly .268 with only 13 HR's last season.

     Evan Longoria is the clear cut number one third baseman according to almost everyone. Surprisingly, Adrian Beltre, newly acquired by the Texas Rangers, is projected to go behind guys like David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman. To me, the guy hit .321 last season with nearly 30 HR's and over 100 RBI's; that's comparable, if not better than both Wright and Zimmerman. Many argue that Beltre's numbers were a result of playing in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park, but his splits show that his average, home run, and RBI totals were better on the road. Casey McGehee (the best third baseman you've never heard of) will look to make a name for himself this season. McGehee has improved each of his last two seasons in power numbers and I see that trend continuing in 2011. Pablo Sandoval was one of the most disappointing fantasy players last season. Calling his second full season a "sophomore slump" would be an understatement, but much of Sandoval's issues were connected to his weight problems. Thanks to an intense off-season workout program, the Kung Fu Panda is leaner and ready to once again put up respectable fantasy numbers.

 

 Axe's

Zach Grienke to Start Season on DL



 

Grienke struggled last season after winning the 2009 Cy Young.



     Zach Grienke broke a rib on his left side during the offseason while playing a game of pickup basketball. He didn't seem hurt during his two spring training starts, posting 1 run on 6 hits over 3 1/3 innings. The Brewers, hoping to bolster an awful starting pitching staff, aquired him this offseason from the Royals .

    Accoring to ESPN.com's Tony Jackson he will miss 4-6 weeks forcing him to miss 3-4 starts. This could be good for those of you who haven't drafted yet. He may drop a few rounds, which could give you an ace much later than expected. It's doubtful that the injury will linger since he already made two spring training starts before ever reporting it.







Jolten' Joey Mauer vs. V-Mart



Joe Mauer is being drafted too high

 As I look over different fantasy baseball rankings, I have to ask one question: How in the world is Joe Mauer ranked higher than Victor Martinez?! By taking Mauer, you waste a early pick on the second best catcher in the draft. Most websites and magazines have him going in the second round.  Victor Martinez, who can put-up similar numbers to Mauer is averaging the fourth round.

     Joe Mauer scares the hell out of me with his dip in home runs and Target Field being Guantanamo Bay for American League hitters.  Lets look at the last four years for both Mauer and Martinez in three main fantasy categories.

Home runs:  2007   2008   2009   2010  Total

Mauer-         7           9         28         9         53

Martinez-    25         2         23         20       70

RBI’s:          2007   2008   2009   2010    Total

Mauer-         60       85        96       75         316

Martinez-  114       35       108      79         336

Batting Average:    2007    2008   2009   2010   Average

Mauer-                   .293     .328      .365    .327      .331

Martinez-              .301      .278      .303   .302       .299

                As I’m sure you’ve noticed, Martinez beats Mauer in two of the three categories. This all comes while Martinez was injured much of the 2008 season with hamstring and finger issues. Pass on Mauer and wait a couple of rounds for the other guys. 



Grab Victor Martinez in the 4th or 5th round



Axe's Top 10 First Basemen

Mark Teixeira hit a career low .256 in 2010.

1. Albert Pujols - St. Louis Cardinals
2. Joey Votto - Cincinnati Reds
3. Miguel Cabrera - Detroit Tigers
4. Mark Teixeira - New York Yankees
5. Adrian Gonzalez - Boston Red Sox
6. Ryan Howard - Philadelphia Phillies
7. Prince Fielder - Milwaukee Brewers
8. Justin Morneau - Minnesota Twins
9. Kevin Youkilis - Boston Red Sox
10. Adam Dunn - Chicago White Sox

Sleeper - Billy Butler - Kansas City Royals
Bust - Paul Konerko - Chicago White Sox

Axe's Take

Albert Pujols is clearly the best fantasy first baseman, and he probably will be until he retires. Miguel Cabrera was a Triple Crown threat last season, but his off-field shenanigans makes me think that his numbers will suffer a bit. Look for Mark Teixeira to have a bounce back year this season. Teixeira's average dipped a little in 2010 (.256), but he's hit .286 over his 8 year career and averages over 100 RBI's every season. Don't be nervous if the Yankee's first baseman starts slow, it's kind of his thing. Guys like Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard always put up great power numbers, but Justin Morneau could surprise the heck out of fantasy owners this season. The former AL MVP battled concussion symptoms last season, but as long as he can stay healthy, he'll be right back among the elite first basemen. Billy Butler may not be a household name, but he's only 24 years old and full of potential. He's not a 40 HR guy, but he did hit .318 last season with 78 RBI's. If you miss out on some of the big names, Butler isn't a bad consolation. Paul Konerko played like his old self last season, but I see that season as an anomaly, not a trend. With so many great first basemen in this year's draft, I wouldn't waste a spot in my starting lineup on Konerko.

  Hollywood's Top 10 First Baseman

                                                                                                         Avg. Draft Position (Yahoo.com)

1. Albert Pujols- St. Louis Cardinals                                                            1.2

2. Miguel Cabrera- Detroit Tigers                                                                 3.9

3. Prince Fielder- Milwaukee Brewers                                                         21.2

4. Joey Votto-Cincinati Reds                                                                         7.1

5. Adrian Gonzalez- Boston Red Sox                                                         10.8

6. Mark Texiera- New York Yankees                                                            19.0

7. Ryan Howard- Philadelphia Phillies                                                        16.6

8. Adam Dunn- Chicago White Sox                                                             49.9

9. Kendry Morales- Los Angeles Angels of Anahiem                               60.3

10. Justin Morneau- Minnesota Twins                                                        59.8

Sleeper: Justin Morneau

Bust: Justin Morneau

Justin Morneau

                                 
                                     Hollywood's Take                                  

This first base position is deep up top but thins out quickly. After the top eleven or twelve you’re left with either guys who don’t play first base regularly (Kevin Youkilis or Victor Martinez), or players who had disappointing 2010 seasons (Carlos Pena, Derrick Lee). Kevin Youkilis is eligible at first base, which is great for position flexibility but I think he would be much better suited at third, which is a much weaker position.

I absolutely love Prince Fielder this year.  I think he puts up the same type of production first round guys put up but one round later. His struggles were a combination of extension talks, trade rumors and constant losing in Milwaukee. The team seems much improved now, thanks to Zach Grienke so I think the Brewers are going to be strong contenders in the NL Central.

The most confusing pick in the whole draft is Justin Morneau. This guy was an RBI machine in the past and on his way to another MVP season, but his issues with concussions could be a reason to worry. He didn’t play the entire second half of the season and it showed in the playoffs when the Twins struggled to score runs against the Yankees.

According to the average draft results, there are ten first baseman taken in the first six rounds.  I’ve heard plenty of talk about waiting to take a hitter, but if you don’t get one early you may end up starting a Derrick Lee or a Carlos Pena. And as we know around the Tampa Bay area, you don’t want to be left with Carlos Pena when everyone else in the league is getting solid production.

Prince Fielder

                                

Hollywood's Top 10 Catchers

                                                                                Avg. Draft Position                         

1. Victor Martinez                                                            42.3

2. Joe Mauer                                                                     27.4

3. Brian McCann                                                              52.6

4. Carlos Santana                                                            75.2

5. Buster Posey                                                                33.5

6. Geovany Soto                                                              130.4

7. Jorge Posada                                                              185.6

8. Matt Wieters                                                                 112

9.  Miguel Montero                                                          160.2

10. Kurt Suzuki                                                                201.5

Sleeper: Jorge Posada

Bust: Buster Posey

               

     

                               Hollywood's Take                                  

            My rankings are based on value per pick. For instance, I have Victor Martinez over Joe Mauer because they put up similar numbers with Mauer going 2 rounds ahead of Martinez (look for my comparison in the next couple of days). Brian McCann struggled last season with his batting average (.269) but has been a consistent hitter throughout his career (.289). I see him having a bounce-back season, hitting around .280.

A lot has been said about Buster Posey and his huge second half. I think he’ll put up good numbers this season but he’s going 4 rounds earlier than a guy I think will put similar numbers up in Carlos Santana. Wait a few rounds and draft Santana. Let someone else(Axe) reach on Buster Posey’s all world potential.

           Look for Miguel Montero to have a good season if he can stay healthy. Kurt Suzuki struggled with injuries in the second half of the season which hurt his power, only hitting 3 homeruns in the second half compared to 10 in the first half. With him healthy, he could be a factor in Oakland. Matt Wieters is full of potential but still hasn’t been able to live up to being a top catcher. Stay away from him unless he falls out of the top 7 catchers taken. There are plenty of guys to take after Wieters goes. If you can’t get one of the top catchers, wait till the last few rounds to get a guy and hope somebody comes out of nowhere.

                My sleeper this year is Jorge Posada. Posada is a guy who has name recognition but saw his production go down drastically due to injury. This guy two years ago hit over 20 homeruns and 80 rbi’s. His average draft position has been the 18^th round. He’ll mostly DH for the Yankees this year which should cut down on his injuries and give him more at-bats. At worst he puts up the same numbers he had last year(.248 18 hr 57 rbi), which compare to Geovany Soto.

Axe's Top 10 Catchers

 Buster Posey hit .305, with 18 HR and 67 RBI in 2010.

1. Buster Posey - San Francisco Giants
2. Joe Mauer -  Minnesota Twins
3. Victor Martinez - Detroit Tigers
4. Brian McCann - Atlanta Braves
5. Carlos Ruiz - Philadelphia Phillies
6. Geovany Soto - Chicago Cubs
7. Carlos Santana - Cleveland Indians
8. Mike Napoli - Texas Rangers
9. Kurt Suzuki - Oakland A's
10. John Jaso - Tampa Bay Rays

Sleeper - Ramon Hernandez - Cincinnati Reds
Bust - Matt Wieters - Baltimore Orioles

Axe's Take

   

Buster Posey put up great numbers (.305, 18 HR, 67 RBI, 58 R) in his rookie season which didn't start until May 27th! Look for Posey to improve with more at-bats and more experience in the batter's box. After Brian McCann, there is a very noticeable drop-off among fantasy catchers, but guys like Geovany Soto and Carlos Santana could be steals in the late rounds. John Jaso just sneaks into my top 10. Joe Maddon says he will pencil him in at the leadoff spot, but the Rays' skipper loves to tinker with the lineup meaning Jaso may not have an opportunity to put up elite numbers. Don't sleep on Ramon Hernandez. He'll split time with fellow Red's catcher Ryan Hanigan, but will make for a great late round or back up catcher if your starter goes down with an injury (which many catchers tend to do). Everyone says Matt Wieters has great potential but he hasn't proven it yet; high risk, low reward. Avoid the O's catcher in your upcoming draft.